How the Western States 100 Lottery Works
And How to Win it With One Single Ticket
Numbers Don’t Lie
All right, here are the hard facts for this year's Western States 100 lottery:
People trying to get into the race: 9993
Total number of tickets in the lottery: 68724
Odds of being drawn with just one ticket: 0.4%
Duh.
My 2022 Lottery Miracle
When I pulled off the magic trick of winning the Western States lottery with just one single ticket, the odds were still at 0.9%. I'm not sure if this makes much of a difference, but the number of people trying to get into this iconic race has even increased since my shot in 2022.
Lottery? What Lottery?
But let's be fair to those who have no idea what this is all about. I assume everyone knows what the Western States Endurance Run is, so here is a brief summary of its infamous lottery system. It's fascinating! Trust me and read on.
How to get In
Every year, due to nature reserve regulations, only 369 runners are allowed to participate in the Western States Endurance Run. On the other hand, there are nearly 10,000 ultrarunners who apply to run it. If you subtract all the special entries, such as the previous year's top 10 finishers, Golden Ticket Race winners, honorary entries, sponsor spots, or 19th and 20th time runners, there are only 260 spots left for the general public.
To account for this enormous discrepancy, a race lottery was introduced in 1981. A rather dreaded race lottery. But first things first.
To be eligible for the lottery, you must first complete a qualifying race. These are usually 100-mile or 100-km races with a time limit. Once you have completed a qualifying race, you can register for the lottery and enter the drawing with one ticket.
One ticket out of 68,724. Doesn't sound very promising. That's because it isn't.
8 Years for a 42% Chance
But here comes the ray of hope: with each year in which you qualify again for the Western States Lottery, the number of tickets you have in the lottery doubles. After 2 years you have 2 tickets, after 3 years 4 tickets, after 4 years 8 tickets, and so on and so forth.
So the longer you "stick with it", the better your chances of being drawn. However, to put it in perspective, you need to qualify for 8 years in a row to have a decent 42% chance of getting in with a number of 128 tickets. And even then, it's still a lottery. This year, one applicant has a whopping 512 tickets. Imagine that.
Less Pressure, More Tickets
Almost every year, there are minor or major adjustments to the Western States Lottery. The most significant one took place in 2020. This year, the rule that you would drop to 0 lottery tickets if you did not complete a qualifying race in a year was eliminated. Even if you take a break from qualifying for one or more years, when you return to qualifying you will start with double your last ticket number.
This change took away the pressure on applicants to complete a 100k or 100-mile race every year. A fair move. At the same time, of course, it allows the absolute number of lottery tickets to grow drastically.
Backup Plan: The Wait List
In 2017, a wait list was introduced. What may sound like a small consolation is not as hopeless as it seems. There have been years in which all 50 people on the waiting list were ultimately able to participate in the race. The number of people who decide to give up their starting place at Western States on short or medium notice is high. There are a thousand reasons why someone might not want or be able to run a 100-mile race. Bad for those who drop out, good for those who move up.
But you need a certain amount of spontaneity. In 2022, I ran a short stretch with a runner who found out two days before the race that he was allowed to start. Two days.
2025 Western States Lottery
The 2025 race lottery will be held on December 7, 2024, in front of a live audience at the Placer High School Auditorium in Auburn, California. The event will be live-streamed on YouTube and is highly recommended by me.
On Saturday, I will be giving a reading at the Energy Lab Café Farchant / Garmisch-Partenkirchen, which will include a Western States Lottery watch party, and I am really excited about it. If one of the participants is drawn, we will, of course, celebrate wildly!
Not This Year, but One Day (Again)
So what about me? I am not participating in the lottery this year. My desire to return to the Western States is unbroken, but not at any price. Maybe I could have finished a last-minute qualifying race if I had put my mind to it instead of going on a mountain running binge right before my meniscus surgery. But that would have been a last-ditch "crowbar" effort, and I quickly dismissed the idea.
Just as the race came to me in 2022, it will come to me again someday. When the time is right, only the universe knows when that will be. But I'll be ready.
Everything Not Running
To celebrate this absolute Western States madness, my running brand Willpower has slashed prices on the Runhundred and Hundert-Meilen-Herz bundles.
Already got the book? Grab a Runhundred tee for a borderline ridiculous price.
Bonus: free shipping worldwide with code SHIPHUNDRED.
Oh, and if you somehow win the lottery? Hit me up. I've got something seriously special in store for you.
On Repeat
In recent years, there has been a veritable flood of bands that have adopted a very specific hardcore sound from the 1990s. Or should I say "imitated"? It's actually crazy, a sound that was born out of a lack of talent, limited access to the full range of influential albums and bands (the internet had been invented, but not what it is today), and a lack of funds to finance a decent studio recording.
Many of these tributes sound contrived and forced, but every now and then a band comes along that comes frighteningly close to the original sound of the 90s. Florida's CONTENTION, for example.
CONTENTION occupy a special niche within this formative era, namely the first flirtations of hardcore and metal. Back then, Morning Again and Culture (also from Florida) were among the first more or less popular American bands to try this balancing act.
For once, hardcore was much more advanced in Europe at the same time. Bands like Congress, Liar, Arkangel, Reprisal and the entire H8000 scene (named after a Belgian zip code) were already practicing the first draft of what would later become a genre in its own right – metalcore – to perfection.
CONTENTION’s song "Ousted from Eden" conveys a lot of the anger of young people who decide against a self-destructive and outwardly destructive lifestyle. It's an anger that I felt as a teenager as well.